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Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs

● quote 241 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $406.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $715.0KEvent: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:188 trades$303.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 256 min agoofficial metadata 236 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$32.9K@ 100¢·CORGI8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$16.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$16.5K
6h
+$67.3K
tracked
$303.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 241 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 256 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 236 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Iron Wing and Team Spirit in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Iron Wing" if Iron Wing win the match against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Iron Wing. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 8h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111152 linked markets · $144.8K gross
CORGI83 linked markets · $101.3K gross
0x2929…1dd02 linked markets · $92.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Iron Wing@ 53.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $169 → $2.4K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$16.5K
6h+$67.3K
24h+$63.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h23.8¢▼ below by 23.6pp
VWAP 7d24.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.5K
55¢
$7.3K
50¢
$98.3K
45¢
$3.4K
40¢
$5.7K
35¢
$229
30¢
$27.8K
25¢
$7.8K
20¢
$3.2K
15¢
$2.7K
10¢
$2.1K
5¢
$1.3K
0¢
← now
$145.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$12.4K@ 99.9¢0x3308…f04b🐋—about 5 hours ago
SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$16.8K@ 99.9¢0x1896…a7d6🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$32.9K@ 99.9¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$11.0K@ 99.9¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$31.5K@ 99.9¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYIron Wing (YES)$13.5K@ 54.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

backbackTeam Spirit$31.5K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
purplegattoIron Wing$20.8K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·4 fills
0xc69b…2076Team Spirit$15.6K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·6 fills
CORGI8Team Spirit$12.5K
BUY VWAP 48.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.