Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

● quote 1 min ago
SportsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $153.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs
33.5¢
YES
66.5¢
NO
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:260 trades$581.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $338·2 wallets·$10.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$109.5K@ 55¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$135.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$135.7K
6h
−$51.2K
tracked
$581.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$338 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 86% · priority 50

Since latest large flow: +18.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • Executable BUY price moved 18.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Team Liquid and Team Yandex in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against Team Yandex. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win Game 1 against Team Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Djdjdjekekek2 linked markets · $182.9K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $48.2K gross
CORGI82 linked markets · $37.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Yandex@ 52.0¢27m ago
15m INVALIDATED -23.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Team Yandex@ 52.0¢28m ago
15m INVALIDATED -23.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Team Yandex@ 43.0¢28m ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Liquid@ 57.0¢58m ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.9K$6.2K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$135.7K
6h$51.2K
24h$51.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h50.5¢▼ below by 17.0pp
VWAP 7d50.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$6.8K
65¢
$7.1K
60¢
$5.8K
55¢
$144.3K
50¢
$151.1K
45¢
$238.2K
40¢
$15.0K
35¢
$1.9K
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Yandex (NO)$10.3K@ 47.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋33 minutes ago
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$15.6K@ 55.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋36 minutes ago
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$109.5K@ 54.7¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋38 minutes ago
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$14.7K@ 53.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋40 minutes ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$55.3K@ 55.4¢0x875b…0878🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$20.0K@ 55.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$10.7K@ 48.5¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋1 day ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs
45.5¢$841.3Kpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
100.0¢$3.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$570.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$502.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$455.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekTeam Yandex$152.0K
BUY VWAP 54.5¢·5 fills
0x875b…0878Team Liquid$55.3K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·1 fill
0xe16d…5e30Team Liquid$30.0K
BUY VWAP 53.9¢·5 fills
0x2929…1dd0Team Liquid$12.1K
BUY VWAP 53.9¢·4 fills
0x19ae…395cTeam Yandex$11.7K
BUY VWAP 49.2¢·5 fills
0x2929…1dd0Team Yandex$11.0K
BUY VWAP 48.8¢·4 fills
0x9100…7adeTeam Liquid$10.7K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·3 fills
111111111115Team Yandex$10.7K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·1 fill
Sunshine.SmileTeam Liquid$10.1K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills
CORGI8Team Yandex$10.1K
BUY VWAP 47.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.