LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $690.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $502.5KEvent: LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets31Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:167 trades$209.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $2.3K·2 wallets·$4.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJD Gaming (YES)$17.2K@ 66¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$22.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$22.0K
6h
+$38.9K
tracked
$209.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$2.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between JD Gaming and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 20 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win Game 2 against ThunderTalk Gaming. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win Game 2 against JD Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9e3e…f8823 linked markets · $57.8K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $55.5K gross
zb83 linked markets · $27.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY JD Gaming@ 95.0¢30m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY JD Gaming@ 68.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $8.5K → $1.5K · 15s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$22.0K
6h+$38.9K
24h+$38.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h81.5¢▲ above by 18.4pp
VWAP 7d81.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$72.1K
90¢
$10.0K
85¢
$19.7K
80¢
$2.5K
75¢
$9.4K
70¢
$16.1K
65¢
$71.0K
60¢
$9.1K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYJD Gaming (YES)$17.2K@ 66.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115JD Gaming$17.2K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0xf030…12e2JD Gaming$10.9K
BUY VWAP 80.4¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.