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Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: CowboysLiquidity: $143.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $321.6KEvent: Commanders vs. Cowboys
100.0¢
Cowboys payout
0.0¢
Commanders payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCowboys$33.7K@ 48¢·0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Cowboys. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if the Cowboys win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Commanders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if the Cowboys win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cowboys@ 48.0¢26d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +45.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cowboys; negative values favor Commanders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCowboys · $0
6hCommanders · $1.9K
24hCowboys · $51.9K

Cowboys price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cowboys price. Commanders fills are converted to the complementary Cowboys probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h59.0¢▲ above by 41.0pp
VWAP 7d59.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cowboys price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$33.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$212
70¢
$336
65¢
$3.3K
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$126.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLCowboys$19.0K@ 99.9¢
magicbloom0xffca…b04c
🐋—25 days ago
BUYCowboys$10.4K@ 99.9¢
LifeIsABoxOfChocolates0x344b…c1e1
🐋—25 days ago
BUYCommanders$19.3K@ 52.0¢0xe987…f0e1🐋—26 days ago
BUYCowboys$14.4K@ 48.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—26 days ago
BUYCommanders$10.1K@ 52.0¢
monkeymashingkeyboard0x684b…8409
🐋—26 days ago
BUYCowboys$33.7K@ 48.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—26 days ago
BUYCowboys$11.3K@ 48.0¢
VibeDoter0xe4a7…dc87
🐋—26 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.