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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud

Sports→TennisSettlement: Rafael JodarLiquidity: $400.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $875.7KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud
100.0¢
Rafael Jodar payout
0.0¢
Casper Ruud payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:419 trades$319.4K trackedsource coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata 42 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rafael Jodar · $36.3K net·20 wallets·$96.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCasper Ruud$21.8K@ 48¢·juice-fruit

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Rafael Jodar. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-23 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Casper Ruud in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Casper Ruud. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 43m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 43m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo3 linked markets · $145 gross
0xf640…02b12 linked markets · $80 gross
0xbfd7…f0bf2 linked markets · $57 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Rafael Jodar UP 2.7pp · near-book depth $50.9K → $96 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Rafael Jodar; negative values favor Casper Ruud. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCasper Ruud · $29.9K
6hCasper Ruud · $9.6K
24hCasper Ruud · $8.4K

Rafael Jodar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Rafael Jodar price. Casper Ruud fills are converted to the complementary Rafael Jodar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h65.0¢▲ above by 35.0pp
VWAP 7d64.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Rafael Jodar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$51.7K
90¢
$15.6K
85¢
$4.5K
80¢
$38.0K
75¢
$8.6K
70¢
$0
65¢
$4.6K
60¢
$9.2K
55¢
$42.1K
50¢
$99.1K
45¢
$18.4K
40¢
$3.0K
35¢
$2.0K
30¢
$648
25¢
$26.7K
20¢
$78
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCasper Ruud$21.8K@ 47.5¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$10.5K@ 53.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesRafael Jodar$49.9K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·34 fills
juice-fruitCasper Ruud$23.8K
BUY VWAP 47.6¢·2 fills
one8tyfiveCasper Ruud$10.5K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesCasper Ruud$10.5K
BUY VWAP 59.5¢·12 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.