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Santa Cruz 2: Franco Roncadelli vs Juan Carlos Prado

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $204.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $127.5KEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Franco Roncadelli vs Juan Carlos Prado
29.5¢
Franco Roncadelli
70.5¢
Juan Carlos Prado
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:100 trades$43.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Franco Roncadelli · $2.4K net·9 wallets·$10.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFranco Roncadelli$13.0K@ 31¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Juan Carlos Prado pressure: $2.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.2K
6h
+$6.3K
tracked
$43.0K

9 verified profitable wallets: Franco Roncadelli · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 49

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Juan Carlos Prado or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Franco Roncadelli and Juan Carlos Prado in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Franco Roncadelli' if Franco Roncadelli advances against Juan Carlos Prado. This market will resolve to 'Juan Carlos Prado' if Juan Carlos Prado advances against Franco Roncadelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $9 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Franco Roncadelli DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $17.5K → $11.2K · 15s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Franco Roncadelli; negative values favor Juan Carlos Prado. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJuan Carlos Prado · $2.2K
6hFranco Roncadelli · $6.3K
24hFranco Roncadelli · $6.3K

Franco Roncadelli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Franco Roncadelli price. Juan Carlos Prado fills are converted to the complementary Franco Roncadelli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h38.3¢▼ below by 8.8pp
VWAP 7d38.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Franco Roncadelli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$3.9K
55¢
$5.1K
50¢
$6
45¢
$1.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$2.3K
30¢
$22.1K
25¢
← now
$5.7K
20¢
$801
15¢
$109
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFranco Roncadelli$13.0K@ 31.5¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Roncadelli vs. Prado: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Roncadelli vs. Prado: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$353priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Roncadelli vs. Prado: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$173priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Juan Carlos Prado (-4.5) vs Franco Roncadelli (+4.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Juan Carlos Prado (-1.5) vs Franco Roncadelli (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Franco Roncadelli vs Juan Carlos Prado
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Franco Roncadelli vs Juan Carlos Prado
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Franco Roncadelli vs. Juan Carlos Prado: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstFranco Roncadelli$13.0K
BUY VWAP 31.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.