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Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $20.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $517.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs
34.0¢
NIP
66.0¢
Liquid
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets85Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:179 trades$196.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NIP · $11.6K net·11 wallets·$13.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLiquid$96.5K@ 51¢·lllllllllllIlll

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Liquid pressure: $8.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.7K
6h
−$138.4K
tracked
$196.7K

11 verified profitable wallets: NIP · $11.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 74% · priority 61

Since latest liquidity absorption: -6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Liquid or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win the match against Liquid.

•This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against NIP.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between NIP and Liquid in the Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win the match against Liquid. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against NIP. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c5 linked markets · $55.3K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $10.2K gross
RN14 linked markets · $8.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Liquid@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -22.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Liquid2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Liquid@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +44.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Liquid@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h CONFIRMED +28.0pp
Latest book event: Liquid UP 13.0pp · near-book depth $9.1K → $6.1K · 71s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor NIP; negative values favor Liquid. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLiquid · $8.7K
6hLiquid · $138.4K
24hLiquid · $136.0K

NIP price VWAP

Volume-weighted NIP price. Liquid fills are converted to the complementary NIP probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.0¢
VWAP 24h48.1¢▼ below by 14.1pp
VWAP 7d48.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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NIP price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$4.7K
50¢
$31.4K
45¢
$142.8K
40¢
$1.2K
35¢
$232
30¢
← now
$10.0K
25¢
$4.2K
20¢
$1.5K
15¢
$2
10¢
$530
5¢
$36
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLiquid$18.2K@ 51.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLiquid$96.5K@ 51.0¢
lllllllllllIlll0x33d4…2833
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLiquid$14.3K@ 51.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lllllllllllIlllLiquid$96.5K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8Liquid$35.5K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.