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Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $32.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs
64.0¢
Liquid
99.9¢
NIP
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$24.5K trackedsource coverage 74%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 96 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NIP · $24.4K net·2 wallets·$24.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNIP$6.3K@ 79¢·0x29b5…cc6c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3.1K
tracked
$24.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: NIP · $24.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 96 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-16 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid wins 2 or more maps than NIP in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NIP".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between NIP and Liquid in the Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid wins 2 or more maps than NIP in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NIP". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c5 linked markets · $55.3K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $23.2K gross
RN14 linked markets · $8.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NIP@ 78.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liquid; negative values favor NIP. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLiquid · $0
6hNIP · $3.1K
24hNIP · $24.4K

Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liquid price. NIP fills are converted to the complementary Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.0¢
VWAP 24h21.2¢▲ above by 42.8pp
VWAP 7d21.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$62
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$24.4K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-6.5) vs NIP (+6.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cNIP$24.4K
BUY VWAP 78.9¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.