Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5

● quote 1173 min ago
SportsCloses: about 22 hoursLiquidity: $184.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $313.8KEvent: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
11.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:64 trades$92.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1190 min agoofficial metadata 1167 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $8.6K·4 wallets(2🐋)·$66.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$18.1K@ 56¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$116
6h
−$71.2K
tracked
$92.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$8.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 1173 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1190 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1167 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, scheduled for August 11 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins combine to score 7 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 7, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20263 linked markets · $58.4K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $58.2K gross
0xc3c3…eec82 linked markets · $5.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Under@ 43.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 43.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 43.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 57.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 23.0pp · near-book depth $5.0K$134 · 41s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$116
6h$71.2K
24h$49.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current11.0¢
VWAP 24h56.5¢▼ below by 45.5pp
VWAP 7d56.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$133.7K
50¢
$112
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1
25¢
$5
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$1
5¢
$0
0¢
$116

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$17.2K@ 43.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋about 23 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$18.1K@ 56.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋1 day ago
BUYOver (YES)$11.0K@ 56.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5268…135dUnder$51.1K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·13 fills
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills
BUY VWAP 43.9¢·3 fills
SDTradingUnder$17.2K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.