Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Astralis (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B

● quote 58s ago
SportsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $1.3MOfficial 24h Vol: $2.3MEvent: Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Astralis (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection54Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets28Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 91%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:279 trades$1.5M tracked4% 🐋source coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$336.4K·4 wallets(2🐋)·$1.2M gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAstralis (NO)$759.0K@ 100¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$799.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$799.3K
6h
+$322.4K
tracked
$1.5M

4 verified profitable wallets: +$336.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 91% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: -35.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 22:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between MIBR and Astralis in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for August 12 at 9:20AM ET. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against MIBR. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Astralis35m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY MIBR@ 36.0¢36m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY Astralis@ 57.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Astralis@ 70.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.5K$1.7K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$799.3K
6h+$322.4K
24h+$300.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h18.6¢▼ below by 18.6pp
VWAP 7d18.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.0K
55¢
$12.8K
50¢
$4.6K
45¢
$307.9K
40¢
$251.6K
35¢
$11.0K
30¢
$17.0K
25¢
$17.0K
20¢
$9.8K
15¢
$5.9K
10¢
$3.4K
5¢
$2.1K
0¢
← now
$845.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAstralis (NO)$14.9K@ 99.9¢0x6c76…c163🐋26 minutes ago
SELLAstralis (NO)$759.0K@ 99.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋27 minutes ago
BUYAstralis (NO)$10.0K@ 57.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYAstralis (NO)$57.7K@ 57.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYAstralis (NO)$77.1K@ 57.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYMIBR (YES)$10.4K@ 44.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYAstralis (NO)$29.1K@ 56.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYAstralis (NO)$232.2K@ 54.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYAstralis (NO)$15.3K@ 54.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYAstralis (NO)$10.8K@ 54.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 14 hours ago
BUYAstralis (NO)$10.0K@ 54.0¢0xf559…f462🐋about 20 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
0.1¢$2.5Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FaZe (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B
0.1¢$2.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs B8 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C
0.1¢$1.9Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C
72.5¢$1.7Mpriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D
89.0¢$1.4Mpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$412.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekAstralis$402.7K
BUY VWAP 55.8¢·5 fills
0x1610…ae49Astralis$23.2K
BUY VWAP 58.7¢·3 fills
AV23IUaAstralis$20.8K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·2 fills
0x0063…2dd2Astralis$20.2K
BUY VWAP 62.9¢·14 fills
0x6e2c…787cAstralis$16.6K
BUY VWAP 63.2¢·11 fills
CORGI8MIBR$10.4K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Astralis$10.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.