LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 43 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $170.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.9MEvent: LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection35Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution95Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:569 trades$762.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $28.7K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$78.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJD Gaming (NO)$43.9K@ 95¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$267.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$267.8K
6h
−$240.5K
tracked
$762.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$28.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 68

Since latest confirmed build: -19.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 43 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Bilibili Gaming and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 12 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Bilibili Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
JaJa6683 linked markets · $173.5K gross
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $122.1K gross
five51203 linked markets · $120.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 20.0¢54m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY JD Gaming@ 81.0¢54m ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 64.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -46.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 6.3pp · near-book depth $401$647 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$267.8K
6h$240.5K
24h$236.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h40.3¢▼ below by 40.3pp
VWAP 7d41.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$5.8K
85¢
$49.3K
80¢
$7.2K
75¢
$52.3K
70¢
$67.5K
65¢
$76.7K
60¢
$80.4K
55¢
$16.0K
50¢
$6.1K
45¢
$2.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBilibili Gaming (YES)$21.7K@ 65.0¢0xe8ad…a859🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (YES)$10.5K@ 66.0¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (YES)$10.0K@ 87.4¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYJD Gaming (NO)$10.4K@ 11.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYJD Gaming (NO)$10.0K@ 27.0¢0x8a86…4998🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe8ad…a859Bilibili Gaming$31.3K
BUY VWAP 65.2¢·3 fills
five5120Bilibili Gaming$20.5K
BUY VWAP 74.9¢·3 fills
0xdf44…70f1Bilibili Gaming$17.4K
BUY VWAP 74.2¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563Bilibili Gaming$11.3K
BUY VWAP 71.2¢·4 fills
purplegattoBilibili Gaming$10.9K
BUY VWAP 63.6¢·2 fills
StasPandaBilibili Gaming$10.7K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·2 fills
0x1660…5598JD Gaming$10.6K
BUY VWAP 37.2¢·5 fills
0xe907…cff6JD Gaming$10.4K
BUY VWAP 11.0¢·3 fills
0x8a86…4998JD Gaming$10.0K
BUY VWAP 27.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.