Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5)

● quote 205 min ago
SportsCloses: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $22.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $102.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: Heroic vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
59.5¢
YES
40.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:11 trades$10.9K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 278 min agoofficial metadata 206 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHeroic (YES)$10.2K@ 61¢·0xeac2…dddc

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$10.9K
tracked
$10.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 205 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 278 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 206 minutes old.
  • Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Heroic and ASTRAL in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic wins 2 or more maps than ASTRAL in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "ASTRAL". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$10.9K
24h+$10.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.5¢
VWAP 24h60.7¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d60.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$10.6K
55¢
← now
$300
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYHeroic (YES)$10.2K@ 60.7¢0xeac2…dddc🐋about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xeac2…dddcHeroic$10.2K
BUY VWAP 60.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.