Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners

● quote 63 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $224.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $602.0KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
51.5¢
YES
48.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly42Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:96 trades$140.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 69 min agoofficial metadata 67 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $22.7K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$22.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSeattle Mariners (NO)$64.2K@ 54¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$69
6h
−$103.9K
tracked
$140.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$22.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Since latest whale follow through: -5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 63 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 69 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 67 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 01:50 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 8 at 9:50PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5e94…5ba13 linked markets · $174.3K gross
0x5268…135d3 linked markets · $8.8K gross
0x22da…28662 linked markets · $369 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Seattle Mariners@ 54.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Seattle Mariners@ 54.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $39.1K$18 · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$69
6h$103.9K
24h$103.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h46.5¢▲ above by 5.0pp
VWAP 7d46.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$800
50¢
← now
$22
45¢
$138.4K
40¢
$1.2K
35¢
$8
30¢
$347
25¢
$101
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$16.1K@ 47.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (NO)$22.3K@ 53.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (NO)$64.2K@ 54.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (NO)$20.6K@ 53.2¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Seattle Mariners$84.8K
BUY VWAP 53.8¢·2 fills
0x3dfb…abafSeattle Mariners$22.3K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
Supremeleader75Tampa Bay Rays$16.1K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.