UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

● quote 243 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $167.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $464.8KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$132.2K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 251 min agoofficial metadata 239 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $80.5K·3 wallets(3🐋)·$80.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexia Thainara (NO)$36.0K@ 71¢·0x9ba7…00ef

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.6K
6h
−$128.7K
tracked
$132.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$80.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 243 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 251 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 239 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Amanda Lemos" if Amanda Lemos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alexia Thainara at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Alexia Thainara" if Alexia Thainara is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alexia Thainara5h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alexia Thainara5h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alexia Thainara5h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alexia Thainara5h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.7K → $1.4K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.6K
6h−$128.7K
24h−$128.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h28.1¢▼ below by 28.0pp
VWAP 7d28.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$130.0K
20¢
$136
15¢
$205
10¢
$130
5¢
$831
0¢
← now
$859

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAlexia Thainara (NO)$15.9K@ 73.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYAlexia Thainara (NO)$28.8K@ 72.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYAlexia Thainara (NO)$35.7K@ 71.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYAlexia Thainara (NO)$36.0K@ 71.0¢0x9ba7…00ef🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x9ba7…00efAlexia Thainara$36.0K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Alexia Thainara$35.7K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill
surfandturfAlexia Thainara$28.8K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafAlexia Thainara$15.9K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.