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UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)

● quote 224 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $186.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $497.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)
99.9¢
YES
0.5¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:86 trades$42.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 236 min agoofficial metadata 214 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$28.2K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$32.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDiego Ferreira (YES)$30.4K@ 62¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.9K
6h
+$31.4K
tracked
$42.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$28.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +38.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 224 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 236 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 214 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Diego Ferreira" if Diego Ferreira is officially declared the winner of the fight against Billy Quarantillo at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Billy Quarantillo" if Billy Quarantillo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Diego Ferreira4h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Diego Ferreira@ 62.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +27.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Diego Ferreira@ 63.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Diego Ferreira@ 63.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $265 → $27 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.9K
6h+$31.4K
24h+$31.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.8¢▲ above by 32.0pp
VWAP 7d67.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.5K
90¢
$1.4K
85¢
$2.9K
80¢
$3.7K
75¢
$320
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$32.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDiego Ferreira (YES)$30.4K@ 62.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafDiego Ferreira$30.4K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.