Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

● quote 263 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $223.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $486.3KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
36.5¢
YES
63.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets14Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:214 trades$92.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 276 min agoofficial metadata 264 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$5.4K·5 wallets(2🐋)·$37.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$29.4K@ 57¢·Eztennis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$809
6h
−$17.7K
tracked
$92.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$5.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 263 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 276 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 264 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 22:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for August 8 at 6:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc3c3…eec82 linked markets · $10.2K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $2.2K gross
RN13 linked markets · $370 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Toronto Blue Jays7h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Philadelphia Phillies7h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 50.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 51.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -19.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $31.3K$13 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$809
6h$17.7K
24h$43.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h41.2¢▼ below by 4.7pp
VWAP 7d41.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$8
75¢
$32
70¢
$212
65¢
$50
60¢
$312
55¢
$601
50¢
$181
45¢
$566
40¢
$77.6K
35¢
← now
$10.1K
30¢
$9
25¢
$1
20¢
$61
15¢
$35
10¢
$1.2K
5¢
$1.7K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$21.5K@ 43.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$10.0K@ 58.0¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$29.4K@ 57.0¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$16.1K@ 59.1¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

EztennisPhiladelphia Phillies$39.4K
BUY VWAP 57.3¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Toronto Blue Jays$21.5K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Philadelphia Phillies$16.1K
BUY VWAP 59.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.