New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

● quote 287 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $375.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $348.1KEvent: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly71Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:63 trades$32.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 310 min agoofficial metadata 287 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $719·2 wallets·$750 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Mets (YES)$28.3K@ 47¢·0xa759…1119

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$525
6h
+$27.4K
tracked
$32.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$719 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 287 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 310 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 287 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-15 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for August 8 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 5h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 5h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $6.4K gross
0x0d2d…7ff52 linked markets · $891 gross
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $436 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY New York Mets@ 48.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $43.9K$218 · 104s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$525
6h+$27.4K
24h+$27.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h43.0¢▼ below by 43.0pp
VWAP 7d43.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$29.5K
40¢
$309
35¢
$14
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1
15¢
$91
10¢
$18
5¢
$1.1K
0¢
← now
$1.8K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Mets (YES)$28.3K@ 47.0¢0xa759…1119🐋about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xa759…1119New York Mets$28.3K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.