Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees

● quote 22 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $799.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $446.4KEvent: Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
40.5¢
YES
59.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$239.2K tracked23% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 23 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$24.4K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$24.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$69.3K@ 60¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$72.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$72.8K
6h
−$187.3K
tracked
$239.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$24.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 67

Since latest accumulation: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 22 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 31 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 17:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, scheduled for August 13 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY New York Yankees@ 60.0¢59m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY New York Yankees@ 60.0¢59m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY New York Yankees@ 60.0¢59m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY New York Yankees@ 60.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$72.8K
6h$187.3K
24h$188.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h41.1¢▼ below by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d41.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$239.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$69.3K@ 60.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$12.0K@ 59.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$18.1K@ 59.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$60.2K@ 59.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$16.5K@ 58.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$30.0K@ 58.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$19.4K@ 43.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75New York Yankees$116.1K
BUY VWAP 59.2¢·4 fills
PwaddlerNew York Yankees$93.2K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·4 fills
SDTradingSeattle Mariners$19.4K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.