LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner

● quote 6 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $788.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

0.1¢

YES

100.0¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:171 trades$424.0K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$30.9K@ 100¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$39

−$179.3K

tracked

$424.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$33.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
•Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

proposed

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-13 19:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 13 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win Game 1 against Bilibili Gaming. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win Game 1 against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

fkgggg2mouzfuria2 linked markets · $55.0K gross

0xf030…12e22 linked markets · $35.5K gross

0xcf60…a6f52 linked markets · $31.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 90.0¢4h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE

LARGE FLOWBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 80.0¢4h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE

LARGE FLOWBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 76.0¢4h ago

15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE

Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $790 → $6.8K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$39

6h−$179.3K

24h−$177.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.1¢

VWAP 24h10.6¢▼ below by 10.5pp

VWAP 7d10.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

$19.0K

25¢

$3.1K

20¢

$103.2K

15¢

$59.0K

10¢

$20.5K

5¢

$13.5K

0¢

← now

$205.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now

SELLBilibili Gaming (NO)$29.3K@ 99.9¢0x24be…ad1a🐋—about 4 hours ago

SELLBilibili Gaming (NO)$20.2K@ 99.9¢

five51200xc1c7…f0a7

🐋—about 4 hours ago

BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$30.9K@ 99.9¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago

BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$19.5K@ 99.9¢0x292f…7fc2🐋—about 4 hours ago

BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$30.0K@ 99.0¢

fkgggg2mouzfuria0x52ec…a6f3

🐋—about 4 hours ago

BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$15.0K@ 77.0¢0x24be…ad1a🐋—about 4 hours ago

BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$18.5K@ 76.0¢

crypto-ericwu20xd967…1409

🐋—about 4 hours ago

BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$19.0K@ 76.0¢0xa7e2…9e36🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Bilibili Gaming$33.9K

BUY VWAP 98.8¢·2 fills

fkgggg2mouzfuriaBilibili Gaming$30.0K

BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill

0x292f…7fc2Bilibili Gaming$23.4K

BUY VWAP 97.6¢·3 fills

0x24be…ad1aBilibili Gaming$21.6K

BUY VWAP 79.7¢·3 fills

crypto-ericwu2Bilibili Gaming$19.9K

BUY VWAP 75.5¢·2 fills

0xa7e2…9e36Bilibili Gaming$19.0K

BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill

0xf030…12e2Bilibili Gaming$18.7K

BUY VWAP 83.8¢·8 fills

five5120Bilibili Gaming$15.9K

BUY VWAP 78.9¢·4 fills

JaJa668Bilibili Gaming$13.8K

BUY VWAP 80.8¢·3 fills

0xe16e…bd58Bilibili Gaming$11.1K

BUY VWAP 90.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.