Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A

● quote 43 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $976.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7MEvent: Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:334 trades$615.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 48 min agoofficial metadata 43 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$64.4K·4 wallets(2🐋)·$121.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLG2 (NO)$58.8K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$59.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$59.0K
6h
−$11.5K
tracked
$615.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$64.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +36.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 43 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 48 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 43 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 19:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between BIG and G2 in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 13 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BIG" if BIG win the match against G2. This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 win the match against BIG. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h3 linked markets · $145.6K gross
0x0063…2dd23 linked markets · $69.6K gross
0x6e2c…787c3 linked markets · $64.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY G22h ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY G2@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY BIG@ 17.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY BIG@ 38.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -21.0pp1h INVALIDATED -22.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $6.1K$4.2K · 17s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$59.0K
6h$11.5K
24h$33.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h24.6¢▼ below by 24.5pp
VWAP 7d24.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$6.6K
35¢
$307.9K
30¢
$43.3K
25¢
$18.7K
20¢
$21.3K
15¢
$42.0K
10¢
$18.1K
5¢
$22.1K
0¢
← now
$106.4K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLG2 (NO)$58.8K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYBIG (YES)$32.7K@ 37.7¢0xeac2…dddc🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYBIG (YES)$25.5K@ 36.5¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYBIG (YES)$10.0K@ 36.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYG2 (NO)$18.7K@ 64.0¢0xdd63…050f🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYG2 (NO)$21.3K@ 64.0¢0x447d…5eea🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYG2 (NO)$13.2K@ 66.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xeac2…dddcBIG$41.7K
BUY VWAP 32.5¢·3 fills
BUY VWAP 64.4¢·2 fills
AV23IUaBIG$25.5K
BUY VWAP 36.5¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49BIG$23.5K
BUY VWAP 14.1¢·10 fills
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·10 fills
BUY VWAP 62.2¢·4 fills
BUY VWAP 74.1¢·12 fills
BUY VWAP 65.3¢·13 fills
AV23IUaG2$13.2K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.