LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 39 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $640.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $670.8KEvent: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:122 trades$175.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 40 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$20.0K@ 87¢·0xb70c…34ca

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$59
6h
−$31.7K
tracked
$175.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 39 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 53 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 40 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 13 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against Bilibili Gaming. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
fkgggg2mouzfuria2 linked markets · $55.0K gross
0xf030…12e22 linked markets · $35.5K gross
0xcf60…a6f52 linked markets · $31.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 85.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY ThunderTalk Gaming@ 16.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 86.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 84.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$59
6h$31.7K
24h$33.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h11.5¢▼ below by 11.4pp
VWAP 7d11.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$80.0K
10¢
$48.2K
5¢
$18.9K
0¢
← now
$29.7K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLBilibili Gaming (NO)$14.2K@ 93.7¢0xdf44…70f1🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYThunderTalk Gaming (YES)$12.0K@ 17.0¢0x9e3e…f882🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$17.6K@ 84.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (NO)$20.0K@ 87.0¢0xb70c…34ca🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x9e3e…f882ThunderTalk Gaming$23.8K
BUY VWAP 15.7¢·6 fills
0xb70c…34caBilibili Gaming$23.2K
BUY VWAP 86.9¢·3 fills
0x6b60…edbeBilibili Gaming$17.6K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill
0xdf44…70f1Bilibili Gaming$11.4K
BUY VWAP 84.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.