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Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees

● quote 738 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $215.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $242.6KEvent: Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
45.5¢
YES
54.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection28Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets17Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:63 trades$102.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 753 min agoofficial metadata 738 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $5.7K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$22.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$13.9K@ 55¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$28.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$28.7K
6h
−$61.3K
tracked
$102.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$5.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 738 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 753 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 738 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 23:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, scheduled for August 11 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $52.2K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $8.7K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $4.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY New York Yankees@ 56.0¢12h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $7.0K → $186 · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$28.7K
6h−$61.3K
24h−$60.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h42.4¢▲ above by 3.1pp
VWAP 7d42.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$48.1K
40¢
$28.5K
35¢
$26.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$12.1K@ 64.4¢0x65b5…aa71🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$13.9K@ 55.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x65b5…aa71New York Yankees$30.6K
BUY VWAP 61.5¢·3 fills
SDTradingNew York Yankees$13.9K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.