New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

● quote 623 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $494.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $644.7KEvent: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:134 trades$317.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 632 min agoofficial metadata 615 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $44.3K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$44.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAtlanta Braves (NO)$178.5K@ 55¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$27.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$27.7K
6h
−$186.4K
tracked
$317.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$44.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 623 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 632 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 615 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for August 11 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Atlanta Braves@ 60.0¢12h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +36.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Atlanta Braves@ 55.0¢12h ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Atlanta Braves@ 55.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Atlanta Braves@ 55.0¢22h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $84$96 · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$27.7K
6h$186.4K
24h$222.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h40.4¢▼ below by 40.3pp
VWAP 7d40.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$245.3K
40¢
$26.9K
35¢
$8.2K
30¢
$101
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$2.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$28.2K
0¢
← now
$4.5K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAtlanta Braves (NO)$19.2K@ 92.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋about 11 hours ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (NO)$18.3K@ 60.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (NO)$178.5K@ 55.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (NO)$24.5K@ 54.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋about 22 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75Atlanta Braves$178.5K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingAtlanta Braves$24.5K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
johnny234Atlanta Braves$18.3K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.