Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins

● quote 653 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $445.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $362.4KEvent: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:88 trades$181.7K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 659 min agoofficial metadata 647 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$13.5K·4 wallets·$13.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMiami Marlins (NO)$27.4K@ 55¢·xifutloong3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$7.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.3K
6h
−$86.8K
tracked
$181.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$13.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 653 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 659 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 647 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, scheduled for August 11 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20263 linked markets · $58.4K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $58.2K gross
0xc3c3…eec82 linked markets · $5.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Miami Marlins@ 51.0¢12h ago
15m CONFIRMED +33.0pp1h CONFIRMED +43.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Miami Marlins@ 51.0¢13h ago
15m CONFIRMED +17.0pp1h CONFIRMED +37.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Miami Marlins@ 52.0¢13h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp1h CONFIRMED +36.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $265$444 · 16s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$7.3K
6h$86.8K
24h$89.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h32.6¢▼ below by 32.6pp
VWAP 7d32.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$37.2K
45¢
$83.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$12
30¢
$165
25¢
$29
20¢
$46
15¢
$7.9K
10¢
$3.2K
5¢
$27
0¢
← now
$49.2K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMiami Marlins (NO)$19.8K@ 99.0¢0x2ada…2f28🐋about 11 hours ago
SELLMiami Marlins (NO)$14.8K@ 99.0¢0x7542…7a20🐋about 11 hours ago
BUYMiami Marlins (NO)$27.4K@ 55.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYMiami Marlins (NO)$24.1K@ 54.0¢0x7542…7a20🐋about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xifutloong3Miami Marlins$36.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
0x7542…7a20Miami Marlins$32.8K
BUY VWAP 52.6¢·2 fills
0x2ada…2f28Miami Marlins$19.8K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
0x41b4…10daMiami Marlins$10.2K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.