Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays

● quote 600 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $272.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $484.3KEvent: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:157 trades$206.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 608 min agoofficial metadata 586 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$22.2K·6 wallets(1🐋)·$32.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToronto Blue Jays (NO)$36.0K@ 59¢·xifutloong3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.6K
6h
−$18.7K
tracked
$206.2K

6 verified profitable wallets: +$22.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 600 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 608 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 586 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 23:07 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for August 11 at 7:07PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $31.9K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $5.2K gross
0x9930…696e2 linked markets · $52 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Boston Red Sox@ 36.0¢11h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 57.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -16.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 45.0¢16h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $9$225 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$5.6K
6h$18.7K
24h+$3.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.0¢▼ below by 37.9pp
VWAP 7d38.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$6.6K
75¢
$1
70¢
$0
65¢
$14
60¢
$5.3K
55¢
$7
50¢
$6.6K
45¢
$50.7K
40¢
$87.9K
35¢
$5
30¢
$404
25¢
$2.8K
20¢
$15.2K
15¢
$5.2K
10¢
$1.5K
5¢
$53
0¢
← now
$23.9K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLToronto Blue Jays (NO)$14.3K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYBoston Red Sox (YES)$17.1K@ 49.0¢0x0e64…336d🐋about 11 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (NO)$36.0K@ 59.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYBoston Red Sox (YES)$22.8K@ 44.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xifutloong3Toronto Blue Jays$36.0K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
Talvez10Boston Red Sox$22.8K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
0x0e64…336dBoston Red Sox$22.6K
BUY VWAP 50.1¢·2 fills
0xbca0…9705Toronto Blue Jays$13.5K
BUY VWAP 76.1¢·5 fills
0x5268…135dToronto Blue Jays$12.6K
BUY VWAP 50.4¢·6 fills
0x5268…135dBoston Red Sox$12.5K
BUY VWAP 50.5¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.