Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox

● quote 625 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $324.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $338.8KEvent: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:184 trades$139.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 632 min agoofficial metadata 617 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$5.8K·3 wallets·$6.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$48.8K@ 60¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.7K
6h
−$57.6K
tracked
$139.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$5.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 625 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 632 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 617 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 23:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for August 11 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago White Sox@ 60.0¢13h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +35.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 9.5pp · near-book depth $2.2K$1.1K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$1.7K
6h$57.6K
24h$55.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h44.6¢▲ above by 55.3pp
VWAP 7d44.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$9.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$117
80¢
$54
75¢
$34
70¢
$11
65¢
$5
60¢
$3.3K
55¢
$9.7K
50¢
$0
45¢
$10.2K
40¢
$85.7K
35¢
$9.3K
30¢
$119
25¢
$6.6K
20¢
$118
15¢
$5.2K
10¢
$0
5¢
$1
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCincinnati Reds (YES)$14.5K@ 40.1¢0x7d99…c027🐋about 14 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$48.8K@ 60.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 14 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$11.6K@ 60.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋about 16 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$412.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.4¢$217.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.4¢$181.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs GamerLegion (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A
50.5¢$165.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
3.4¢$158.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?
2.9¢$153.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafChicago White Sox$48.8K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
0x7d99…c027Cincinnati Reds$14.5K
BUY VWAP 40.1¢·1 fill
kkookkooChicago White Sox$12.9K
BUY VWAP 59.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.