Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals

● quote 598 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $207.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $431.7KEvent: Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets14Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:141 trades$148.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 615 min agoofficial metadata 593 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$10.1K·4 wallets(3🐋)·$72.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChicago Cubs (YES)$20.1K@ 63¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$8.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.1K
6h
+$16.1K
tracked
$148.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$10.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 598 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 615 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 593 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 22:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, scheduled for August 11 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Talvez102 linked markets · $53.2K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $21.7K gross
SDTrading2 linked markets · $20.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago Cubs@ 64.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h CONFIRMED +23.6pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Washington Nationals@ 40.0¢22h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.1pp · near-book depth $10$4 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$8.1K
6h+$16.1K
24h+$21.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.0¢▲ above by 32.9pp
VWAP 7d67.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$8.7K
90¢
$1.4K
85¢
$6.3K
80¢
$4.4K
75¢
$5.7K
70¢
$6.1K
65¢
$0
60¢
$109.9K
55¢
$135
50¢
$87
45¢
$5.0K
40¢
$179
35¢
$241
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYWashington Nationals (NO)$17.1K@ 37.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋about 16 hours ago
BUYWashington Nationals (NO)$14.2K@ 37.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 16 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs (YES)$19.5K@ 63.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋about 17 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs (YES)$20.1K@ 63.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Talvez10Chicago Cubs$39.6K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·2 fills
0xb4f9…c9a7Washington Nationals$21.6K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·3 fills
SDTradingWashington Nationals$17.1K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Washington Nationals$14.2K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.