LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

● quote 23 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.2MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.9MEvent: LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:562 trades$730.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $10.8K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$129.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDN SOOPers (YES)$55.9K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$118.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$118.4K
6h
−$262.2K
tracked
$730.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$10.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 23 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 32 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between DN SOOPers and Nongshim Red Force in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "DN SOOPers" if DN SOOPers win the match against Nongshim Red Force. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against DN SOOPers. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h3 linked markets · $179.1K gross
ThornyDevil3 linked markets · $103.7K gross
five51203 linked markets · $88.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY DN SOOPers@ 92.0¢50m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 9.0¢50m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 56.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -50.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 56.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -50.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $14$31 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$118.4K
6h$262.2K
24h$270.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h67.4¢▲ above by 32.5pp
VWAP 7d67.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3.3K
55¢
$13.5K
50¢
$13.7K
45¢
$31.1K
40¢
$189.6K
35¢
$65.2K
30¢
$5.7K
25¢
$7.9K
20¢
$279
15¢
$19.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNongshim Red Force (NO)$17.9K@ 57.3¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (NO)$43.0K@ 59.2¢
ThornyDevil0xa759…1119
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (NO)$41.3K@ 56.9¢
ThornyDevil0xa759…1119
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (NO)$13.7K@ 62.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ThornyDevilNongshim Red Force$95.7K
BUY VWAP 58.1¢·4 fills
five5120Nongshim Red Force$17.9K
BUY VWAP 57.3¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Nongshim Red Force$14.4K
BUY VWAP 60.3¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563DN SOOPers$14.2K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·5 fills
johnny234Nongshim Red Force$13.7K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·2 fills
0xf958…db13Nongshim Red Force$11.5K
BUY VWAP 61.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.