Counter-Strike: BIG vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A

● quote 126 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $291.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $139.7KEvent: Counter-Strike: BIG vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A
39.5¢
YES
60.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$75.2K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 134 min agoofficial metadata 128 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming (NO)$31.0K@ 62¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$12.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.1K
6h
−$23.8K
tracked
$75.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$31.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 55

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 126 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 134 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 128 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between BIG and Aurora Gaming in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 12 at 8:10AM ET. This market will resolve to "BIG" if BIG win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against BIG. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Aurora Gaming@ 62.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 62.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$12.1K
6h$23.8K
24h$61.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h38.5¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d38.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.7K
35¢
← now
$72.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming (NO)$10.0K@ 61.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming (NO)$31.0K@ 62.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaAurora Gaming$31.0K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8Aurora Gaming$10.0K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.