LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner

● quote 22 min ago
SportsCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $1.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $949.7KEvent: LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:349 trades$445.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 24 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $39.9K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$39.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDN SOOPers (YES)$32.6K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$31.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$31.9K
6h
−$71.2K
tracked
$445.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$39.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 22 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 41 minutes old.
  • Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between DN SOOPers and Nongshim Red Force in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "DN SOOPers" if DN SOOPers win Game 2 against Nongshim Red Force. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win Game 2 against DN SOOPers. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h3 linked markets · $179.1K gross
ThornyDevil3 linked markets · $103.7K gross
five51203 linked markets · $88.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY YES2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 85.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 29.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 14.0pp · near-book depth $788$985 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$31.9K
6h$71.2K
24h$71.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h80.5¢▲ above by 19.4pp
VWAP 7d80.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$188.0K
90¢
$29.7K
85¢
$23.8K
80¢
$4.9K
75¢
$42.3K
70¢
$24.0K
65¢
$16.1K
60¢
$4.4K
55¢
$9.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$14.3K
40¢
$31.8K
35¢
$34.5K
30¢
$5.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLDN SOOPers (YES)$11.6K@ 99.9¢0x695d…0d7c🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLDN SOOPers (YES)$17.4K@ 99.9¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLDN SOOPers (YES)$32.6K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLDN SOOPers (YES)$31.1K@ 99.0¢0xe8ad…a859🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDN SOOPers (YES)$13.3K@ 95.7¢0xe8ad…a859🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDN SOOPers (YES)$11.0K@ 90.6¢0x04b1…d224🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDN SOOPers (YES)$10.0K@ 92.0¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x04b1…d224DN SOOPers$19.8K
BUY VWAP 82.8¢·4 fills
0xe8ad…a859DN SOOPers$15.8K
BUY VWAP 95.2¢·3 fills
five5120DN SOOPers$15.0K
BUY VWAP 86.2¢·2 fills
johnbasterDN SOOPers$11.7K
BUY VWAP 79.2¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.