UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)

● quote 26 min ago

Sports→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $63.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.8KEvent: UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)

58.5¢

YES

41.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%

24h sample:4 trades$65.1K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 229 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJalin Turner (YES)$27.8K@ 60¢·Winnnnnnning

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$51.8K

tracked

$65.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 26 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 229 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

active

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-16 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Jalin Turner" if Jalin Turner is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kauê Fernandes at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Kauê Fernandes" if Kauê Fernandes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jalin Turner@ 60.0¢4h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Jalin Turner@ 60.0¢4h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$0

6h+$51.8K

24h+$38.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current58.5¢

VWAP 24h59.4¢▼ below by 0.9pp

VWAP 7d59.4¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

$27.8K