US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?
● quote 30 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: about 1 monthLiquidity: $35.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $122.0KEvent: US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
5.0¢
YES
95.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution74Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%
24h sample:15 trades$5.8K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 106 min agoofficial metadata 31 min ago
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
What the tape says
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
1h
$0
6h
−$5.6K
tracked
$5.8K
No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.
Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread
Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.
Data confidence 51% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
Risks / missing evidence
- •Executable quote is 30 minutes old.
- •Observed tape is 106 minutes old.
- •Official market metadata is 31 minutes old.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus independent-wallet confirmation.
Price History
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend
Market Analytics
LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.1h+$0
6h−$5.6K
24h−$5.6K
YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Current5.0¢
VWAP 24h4.5¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d4.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.
Largest holders
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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$1.7K0¢
$4.1K
VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity
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Verified directional wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity