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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $55.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $289.4KEvent: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
66.5¢
YES
33.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%
24h sample:21 trades$3.4K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 33s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$1.7K@ 77¢·0xbfdd…e70e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$603
6h
−$3.2K
tracked
$3.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus independent-wallet confirmation.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$603
6h−$3.2K
24h−$3.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.5¢
VWAP 24h73.0¢▼ below by 6.5pp
VWAP 7d73.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$2.1K
70¢
$37
65¢
← now
$897
60¢
$278
55¢
$0
50¢
$47
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Verified directional wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity