PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Closes: 5 monthsLiquidity: $64.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $230.1KEvent: Iran leader end of 2026?
73.6¢
YES
26.4¢
NO
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly39Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%
24h sample:69 trades$5.0K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$51
6h
−$483
tracked
$5.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus independent-wallet confirmation.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$51
6h−$483
24h+$3.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.6¢
VWAP 24h74.6¢▼ below by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d74.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$5.0K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Bloomfield Hills: Borna Gojo vs Dhakshineswar Suresh
0.1¢$448.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
66.5¢$290.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
30.5¢$243.9Kpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
51.5¢$160.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
7.5¢$125.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?
5.0¢$117.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
16.5¢$113.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
34.0¢$99.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Verified directional wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity