Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

● quote 302 min ago

Finance→Closes: 11 monthsLiquidity: $30.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.1KEvent: Anthropic IPO by __?

12.5¢

YES

87.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:3 trades$4.0K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 1439 min agoofficial metadata 305 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$993·2 wallets·$8.7K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$4.0K@ 91¢·0x290d…dc40

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

tracked

$4.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$993 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 302 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 1439 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 305 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

active

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-07-01 00:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$0

6h+$0

24h−$4.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current12.5¢

VWAP 24h9.0¢▲ above by 3.5pp

VWAP 7d13.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢