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Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

● quote just now
Finance→Tech→CorporateCloses: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $45.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $100.4KEvent: Anthropic IPO by __?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

97.1¢
YES
2.9¢
NO
1.2¢
Spread
anomaly58Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$31.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $29.6K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$29.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$22.9K@ 90¢·Michael-The-Taxiarch

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.9K
6h
+$2.1K
tracked
$31.3K

13 verified profitable wallets: YES · $29.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.2¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 73% · priority 51

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

•If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 41d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
nimble-mellow-comet3 linked markets · $62.2K gross
Michael-The-Taxiarch3 linked markets · $44.3K gross
wan1232 linked markets · $13.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 93.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.9pp1h STALLED -1.4pp6h CONFIRMED +4.2pp24h CONFIRMED +3.4pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 75.0¢23d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 82.0¢40d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $2.9K
6hYES · $2.1K
24hYES · $13.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.1¢
VWAP 24h97.41¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d89.95¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$58.1K
90¢
$51.1K
85¢
$70.6K
80¢
$11.6K
75¢
$12.9K
70¢
$57.4K
65¢
$15.2K
60¢
$1.8K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$10.0K@ 97.61¢
Paul9739730xa108…abd3
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYYES$18.6K@ 94.43¢
nimble-mellow-comet0x3e03…b571
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$22.9K@ 89.76¢
Michael-The-Taxiarch0x3cc3…fb0b
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$13.4K@ 87.95¢
mewmew10xe95e…61f2
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$20.8K@ 74.0¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—23 days ago
BUYYES$11.2K@ 80.65¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$14.5K@ 94.28¢
pmrev0x7b8c…1556
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Michael-The-TaxiarchYes$22.9K
BUY VWAP 89.76¢·1 fill
mewmew1Yes$22.7K
BUY VWAP 88.06¢·2 fills
nimble-mellow-cometYes$18.6K
BUY VWAP 94.43¢·1 fill
Paul973973Yes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 97.61¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.