Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?

● quote just now

Finance→Tech→CorporateCloses: about 1 monthLiquidity: $42.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $24.6KEvent: Anthropic IPO by __?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

97.55¢

YES

2.45¢

1.5¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:14 trades$13.9K trackedsource coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 258 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $2.4K net·3 wallets·$2.6K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$14.9K@ 94¢·nimble-mellow-comet

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$804

tracked

$13.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: YES · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.5¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Observed tape is 258 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-12-16 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

•If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

nimble-mellow-comet3 linked markets · $62.2K gross

Michael-The-Taxiarch3 linked markets · $44.3K gross

wan1232 linked markets · $13.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 93.0¢1d ago

15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h CONFIRMED +3.6pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $804

24hYES · $11.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current97.55¢

VWAP 24h96.21¢▲ above by 1.3pp

VWAP 7d90.08¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$24.6K

90¢

$17.8K

85¢

$21.3K

80¢

$5.4K