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Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $58.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $261.4KEvent: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
2.2¢
YES
97.8¢
NO
1.6¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:146 trades$59.1K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 46s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $4.3K net·16 wallets·$12.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$9.8K@ 49¢·ivantoney

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $12.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.9K
6h
−$6.6K
tracked
$59.1K

16 verified profitable wallets: YES · $4.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.6¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 81% · priority 53

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
flawfence2 linked markets · $16.9K gross
0x29d1…32f42 linked markets · $11.9K gross
seal73 linked markets · $9.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 68.0¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp6h INVALIDATED -7.0pp24h INVALIDATED -11.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $4.7K → $747 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $12.9K
6hNO · $6.6K
24hYES · $2.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.2¢
VWAP 24h32.6¢▼ below by 30.4pp
VWAP 7d43.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$553
60¢
$15.1K
55¢
$17.3K
50¢
$31.2K
45¢
$30.7K
40¢
$8.8K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.0K
20¢
$1.8K
15¢
$1.6K
10¢
$6.5K
5¢
$2.1K
0¢
← now
$12.5K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ivantoneyYes$19.9K
BUY VWAP 50.5¢·4 fills
0x1859…f776Yes$12.4K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.