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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

● quote 11s ago
Politics→Closes: about 1 monthLiquidity: $229.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $78.3KEvent: Brazil Presidential Election
33.7¢
YES
66.3¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:79 trades$14.5K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 33 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $11.0K·11 wallets·$29.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$12.2K@ 30¢·flawfence

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$4
6h
+$424
tracked
$14.5K

11 verified profitable wallets: −$11.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 33 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Mysaria12 linked markets · $169.7K gross
cigarettes11 linked markets · $160.2K gross
scottilicious3 linked markets · $86.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 33.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.3pp24h STALLED -0.6pp
CROSS MARKET30d ago
Outcome checks pending

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$4
6h+$424
24h+$894

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.7¢
VWAP 24h33.5¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d31.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$151.9K
25¢
$209.9K
20¢
$69.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$12.2K@ 29.9¢
flawfence0x23d8…0288
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb1ce…ced2Yes$30.7K
BUY VWAP 32.7¢·85 fills
cigarettesNo$17.6K
BUY VWAP 69.5¢·76 fills
flawfenceYes$15.0K
BUY VWAP 30.2¢·4 fills
MysariaNo$14.9K
BUY VWAP 69.4¢·204 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.