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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 19 daysLiquidity: $748.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $635.6KEvent: Brazil Presidential Election

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

19.5¢
YES
80.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets79Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 68 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:949 trades$199.1K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 35s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $182.8K net·68 wallets(5🐋)·$400.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$101.3K@ 12¢·unknwnfnd

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $24.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$24.6K
6h
−$35.3K
tracked
$199.1K

68 verified profitable wallets: NO · $182.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 65

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
Outcome meaning

•This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
eventalpha262 linked markets · $162.9K gross
Lolakis2 linked markets · $110.9K gross
defillama72 linked markets · $81.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

COUNTER FLOWBUY NO@ 80.0¢8d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 44.0¢21d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h INVALIDATED -9.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 43.0¢21d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 43.0¢21d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $24.6K
6hNO · $35.3K
24hNO · $19.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current19.5¢
VWAP 24h23.35¢▼ below by 3.9pp
VWAP 7d21.52¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$98.1K
40¢
$779.4K
35¢
$463.7K
30¢
$13.0K
25¢
$96.0K
20¢
$1.6M
15¢
← now
$1.5M
10¢
$791.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.0K@ 80.24¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYYES$22.5K@ 24.94¢
Jmeryn0x6606…c102
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYNO$11.8K@ 79.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$19.0K@ 80.0¢
themain0x2f9d…deb3
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$11.4K@ 80.0¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$11.9K@ 80.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$21.9K@ 81.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$10.5K@ 20.0¢
joaonicoleti0x9e74…fd0f
🐋—4 days ago
SELLYES$13.2K@ 22.0¢
joaonicoleti0x9e74…fd0f
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$21.5K@ 79.81¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 80.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$12.2K@ 20.0¢
tiagsluiz10x13d2…1344
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$24.3K@ 81.0¢
tennisclub0x479d…d469
🐋—6 days ago
SELLYES$12.7K@ 20.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 20.0¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—6 days ago
SELLYES$25.6K@ 20.58¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—6 days ago
SELLYES$10.1K@ 22.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 78.0¢
kirito000xedcd…2507
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$13.1K@ 77.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—8 days ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 22.53¢0x35be…c77f🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$13.5K@ 80.0¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$33.3K@ 79.0¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$16.0K@ 77.0¢
themain0x2f9d…deb3
🐋—8 days ago
SELLYES$10.5K@ 22.0¢
Simpsons20260x5f14…c52a
🐋—8 days ago
BUYYES$24.1K@ 24.69¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—8 days ago
BUYYES$24.3K@ 24.29¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$24.1K@ 24.14¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$19.8K@ 80.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$14.3K@ 19.65¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$12.8K@ 17.0¢
ThanksGivingTurkey10010xbace…3429
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$16.8K@ 84.0¢
pantomime0xd039…2532
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$85.0K@ 85.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$13.2K@ 14.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$15.4K@ 11.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—14 days ago
SELLNO$55.2K@ 89.0¢
WordleAddict0xe25b…0f1b
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$44.5K@ 89.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—14 days ago
SELLYES$12.0K@ 12.0¢0x8b4b…541b🐋—14 days ago
SELLYES$11.7K@ 13.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—14 days ago
SELLYES$11.7K@ 13.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—15 days ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 87.0¢
StudentMoney0xfb51…742d
🐋—15 days ago
BUYYES$17.2K@ 14.0¢
The-Joker0x9aeb…2729
🐋—15 days ago
SELLYES$101.3K@ 12.27¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—15 days ago
SELLYES$22.1K@ 14.33¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—15 days ago
BUYNO$35.4K@ 85.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—16 days ago
BUYYES$12.8K@ 16.0¢
defillama70x4c8c…e36f
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$57.6K@ 86.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$18.8K@ 85.0¢
ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$38.4K@ 85.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 85.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$22.1K@ 84.0¢0x8b4b…541b🐋—18 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

joaonicoletiYes$60.7K
BUY VWAP 21.06¢·18 fills
StarryPathNo$46.3K
BUY VWAP 79.89¢·4 fills
timetowanderNo$33.7K
BUY VWAP 80.29¢·2 fills
MisTKyYes$30.4K
BUY VWAP 21.81¢·29 fills
themainNo$29.2K
BUY VWAP 78.93¢·3 fills
kirito00No$28.0K
BUY VWAP 77.71¢·8 fills
JmerynYes$26.6K
BUY VWAP 25.03¢·3 fills
tennisclubNo$24.3K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill
aHjCzNo$20.8K
BUY VWAP 78.23¢·114 fills
classifiedNo$19.9K
BUY VWAP 80.11¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.