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Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

● quote 13s ago
Politics→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $48.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $127.0KEvent: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
2.5¢
YES
97.5¢
NO
2.4¢
Spread
anomaly23Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$19.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $18.0K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$18.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$10.2K@ 84¢·flawfence

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$16
6h
−$8.5K
tracked
$19.1K

6 verified profitable wallets: NO · $18.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.4¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
flawfence2 linked markets · $16.9K gross
0x29d1…32f42 linked markets · $11.9K gross
seal73 linked markets · $9.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $16
6hNO · $8.5K
24hNO · $15.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.5¢
VWAP 24h16.9¢▼ below by 14.4pp
VWAP 7d16.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.2K
15¢
$17.5K
10¢
$5.4K
5¢
$81
0¢
← now
$168

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.2K@ 84.0¢
flawfence0x23d8…0288
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

flawfenceNo$14.5K
BUY VWAP 83.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.