Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

● quote 393 min ago
PoliticsCloses: 5 monthsLiquidity: $292.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $55.5KEvent: Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3.8¢
YES
96.2¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:111 trades$5.9K trackedsource coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 398 min agoofficial metadata 399 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$5.6K·2 wallets·$5.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$22.0K@ 96¢·0x410a…2643

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.3K
6h
+$1.3K
tracked
$5.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$5.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 65

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 393 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 398 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 399 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.2¢10d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.1pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.3K
6h+$1.3K
24h+$5.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.8¢
VWAP 24h3.7¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d3.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$159.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$19.1K@ 96.1¢0x8b4b…541b🐋10 days ago
SELLNO$22.0K@ 96.0¢0x410a…2643🐋10 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.