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Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech

● quote 60 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $598.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $718.1KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech

Indicative prices · 60 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Ben Shelton
1.0¢
Arthur Rinderknech
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:308 trades$277.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 62 min agoofficial metadata 58 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Rinderknech · $1.1K net·18 wallets·$26.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBen Shelton$16.0K@ 99¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.6K
tracked
$277.2K

18 verified profitable wallets: Arthur Rinderknech · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 60 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 62 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 58 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Arthur Rinderknech in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Ben Shelton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4c47…83e72 linked markets · $400 gross
0x0849…24972 linked markets · $30 gross
0xefae…9d8e2 linked markets · $10 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Ben Shelton DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $9 → $395 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ben Shelton; negative values favor Arthur Rinderknech. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBen Shelton · $0
6hArthur Rinderknech · $1.6K
24hBen Shelton · $7.2K

Ben Shelton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ben Shelton price. Arthur Rinderknech fills are converted to the complementary Ben Shelton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h63.71¢▲ above by 36.2pp
VWAP 7d63.71¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ben Shelton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$42.6K
90¢
$22.2K
85¢
$2.0K
80¢
$1
75¢
$3
70¢
$31.7K
65¢
$60.0K
60¢
$10.5K
55¢
$4.0K
50¢
$1.3K
45¢
$5.8K
40¢
$33.2K
35¢
$46.4K
30¢
$15.3K
25¢
$2.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLBen Shelton$11.9K@ 99.9¢0x9bfe…4a26🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLBen Shelton$16.0K@ 99.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$13.6K@ 90.0¢
name-no-name0x14e7…bb64
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$11.1K@ 68.94¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

name-no-nameBen Shelton$21.0K
BUY VWAP 80.24¢·2 fills
MadridTimeArthur Rinderknech$13.2K
BUY VWAP 62.23¢·9 fills
MadridTimeBen Shelton$12.6K
BUY VWAP 45.84¢·5 fills
kkookkooBen Shelton$11.1K
BUY VWAP 68.94¢·1 fill
redvinnyArthur Rinderknech$11.1K
BUY VWAP 58.83¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.