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Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $61.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $502.5KEvent: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana

Polymarket indicative prices · 8 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Sorana Cirstea
0.05¢
Mary Stoiana
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution24Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:137 trades$135.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sorana Cirstea · $52.7K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$54.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSorana Cirstea$10.1K@ 90¢·Flaznorp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Sorana Cirstea pressure: $13.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$13.0K
6h
+$76.7K
tracked
$135.0K

10 verified profitable wallets: Sorana Cirstea · $52.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Sorana Cirstea or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sorana Cirstea and Mary Stoiana in the Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sorana Cirstea' if Sorana Cirstea advances against Mary Stoiana. This market will resolve to 'Mary Stoiana' if Mary Stoiana advances against Sorana Cirstea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Sorana Cirstea UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $4.6K → $68.7K · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sorana Cirstea; negative values favor Mary Stoiana. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSorana Cirstea · $13.0K
6hSorana Cirstea · $76.7K
24hSorana Cirstea · $76.6K

Sorana Cirstea price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sorana Cirstea price. Mary Stoiana fills are converted to the complementary Sorana Cirstea probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h84.99¢▲ above by 15.0pp
VWAP 7d84.99¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sorana Cirstea price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$25.4K
90¢
$55.4K
85¢
$625
80¢
$13.9K
75¢
$28.3K
70¢
$152
65¢
$55
60¢
$6.6K
55¢
$4.2K
50¢
$200
45¢
$113
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSorana Cirstea$10.1K@ 90.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana
—$311priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Sorana Cirstea (-1.5) vs Mary Stoiana (+1.5)
—$235priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Sorana Cirstea (-4.5) vs Mary Stoiana (+4.5)
—$106priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cirstea vs. Stoiana: Match O/U 21.5
—$51priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Sorana Cirstea vs. Mary Stoiana: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cirstea vs. Stoiana: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
—$7priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cirstea vs. Stoiana: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cirstea vs. Stoiana: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FlaznorpSorana Cirstea$19.1K
BUY VWAP 90.82¢·7 fills
VenusianSorana Cirstea$17.7K
BUY VWAP 92.34¢·6 fills
LightParadoxSorana Cirstea$10.8K
BUY VWAP 94.23¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.