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Trump out as President before 2027?

● quote just now
Politics→Geopolitics→ElectionsCloses: 3 monthsLiquidity: $353.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $34.7KEvent: Trump out as President before 2027?
4.0¢
YES
96.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:67 trades$18.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 120 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $11.6K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$12.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$23.0K@ 95¢·pinduoduo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$145
tracked
$18.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $11.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 120 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 50d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.8¢15d ago
15m STALLED -0.4pp1h STALLED -0.4pp6h STALLED -0.5pp24h STALLED -0.6pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.0¢27d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.0¢46d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 91.0¢54d ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $145
24hYES · $14.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.0¢
VWAP 24h4.2¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d3.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$67.0K
0¢
← now
$215.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$14.2K@ 95.8¢
hughjonesd0xe145…519a
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYNO$10.8K@ 96.2¢
davisb120xdf17…97d1
🐋—5 days ago
SELLNO$14.9K@ 96.1¢
NeH0x11fc…dc48
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$20.0K@ 96.7¢
Lolololol0xa745…8ca6
🐋—15 days ago
BUYNO$14.6K@ 95.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$23.0K@ 95.0¢
pinduoduo0x67b8…4bb1
🐋—27 days ago
SELLNO$38.6K@ 93.7¢0x9771…5a0a🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$56.1K@ 94.0¢
Aeglos0xb665…bf8f
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$12.4K@ 94.0¢
NeH0x11fc…dc48
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$29.4K@ 94.0¢
dedoge0xb0b1…38a3
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$62.1K@ 91.5¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$52.3K@ 93.0¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$26.2K@ 94.0¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$18.8K@ 94.0¢0x8a79…b1a8🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$23.4K@ 93.7¢
Jan7770xb8e3…aaf2
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$56.4K@ 94.0¢
Jan7770xb8e3…aaf2
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$28.5K@ 95.0¢
pinduoduo0x67b8…4bb1
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$28.2K@ 94.0¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$28.2K@ 94.0¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 94.0¢0x2d53…398b🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

davisb12No$10.8K
BUY VWAP 96.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.