PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→Geopolitics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $609.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.3KEvent: Putin out as President of Russia by...?
6.5¢
YES
93.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:61 trades$23.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $7.5K net·5 wallets·$11.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$156.4K@ 92¢·Llalalala

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
−$2.9K
tracked
$23.1K

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $7.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 14d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
poorersob2 linked markets · $19.1K gross
CP-directional2 linked markets · $9.5K gross
0xc810…2e982 linked markets · $8.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 92.0¢13d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 93.0¢15d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGESELL NO@ 92.0¢19d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 92.0¢19d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $5
6hNO · $2.9K
24hYES · $11.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.5¢
VWAP 24h6.8¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d6.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$954.0K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$11.2K@ 93.0¢
poorersob0x45bc…978b
🐋—about 19 hours ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 93.0¢
NewChapp0x82da…da33
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$10.5K@ 93.0¢
Dolysuper370xea6e…2091
🐋—6 days ago
SELLNO$15.7K@ 92.0¢
zeroriskcontrol0x248c…b093
🐋—13 days ago
SELLNO$31.6K@ 92.0¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—13 days ago
SELLNO$18.2K@ 92.0¢0x8a79…b1a8🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$18.6K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—15 days ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 92.0¢
apple33330xf3f9…4206
🐋—16 days ago
SELLNO$21.2K@ 92.0¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—16 days ago
SELLNO$23.0K@ 92.0¢
zeroriskcontrol0x248c…b093
🐋—16 days ago
SELLNO$76.8K@ 92.0¢
Llalalala0x05e2…6e12
🐋—19 days ago
SELLNO$156.4K@ 92.0¢
Llalalala0x05e2…6e12
🐋—19 days ago
BUYNO$15.8K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$27.9K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—22 days ago
SELLNO$10.1K@ 92.0¢0xf285…1b96🐋—25 days ago
SELLNO$65.9K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—30 days ago
BUYNO$41.0K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$24.7K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$38.0K@ 92.0¢0x04fc…0e31🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$30.0K@ 92.0¢0x1496…ee6f🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 92.0¢0xf5bc…ebf7🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$18.4K@ 92.0¢
thoodr0x3eae…e2ed
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$19.5K@ 92.0¢
ANGGGuess0xab01…2558
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$27.3K@ 92.0¢0x1496…ee6f🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 91.0¢
SuperFake0x9901…6046
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$178.0K@ 91.0¢
bullishkirby20x5d2b…cb8c
🐋—about 1 month ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
1.0¢$69.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
14.5¢$56.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1¢$834.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$575.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
0.1¢$506.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Dolysuper37No$11.2K
BUY VWAP 93.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.