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Costa do Sauipe: Marco Cecchinato vs Francisco Comesana

● quote 7 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $61.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $437.9KEvent: Costa do Sauipe: Marco Cecchinato vs Francisco Comesana

Polymarket indicative prices · 8 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Marco Cecchinato
0.05¢
Francisco Comesana
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution23Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:98 trades$170.1K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Marco Cecchinato · $5.2K net·7 wallets·$13.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMarco Cecchinato$27.7K@ 45¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Francisco Comesana pressure: $56.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$56.7K
6h
−$3.3K
tracked
$170.1K

7 verified profitable wallets: Marco Cecchinato · $5.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +95.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 7 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 35 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 95.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Francisco Comesana or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Cecchinato and Francisco Comesana in the Costa do Sauipe, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Cecchinato' if Marco Cecchinato advances against Francisco Comesana. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Comesana' if Francisco Comesana advances against Marco Cecchinato. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL Marco Cecchinato@ 95.0¢40m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWSELL Marco Cecchinato@ 46.0¢43m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Marco Cecchinato1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Marco Cecchinato@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Marco Cecchinato UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $6.7K → $1.5K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marco Cecchinato; negative values favor Francisco Comesana. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancisco Comesana · $56.7K
6hFrancisco Comesana · $3.3K
24hFrancisco Comesana · $3.3K

Marco Cecchinato price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marco Cecchinato price. Francisco Comesana fills are converted to the complementary Marco Cecchinato probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h51.28¢▲ above by 48.7pp
VWAP 7d51.28¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marco Cecchinato price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$9.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$5.0K
75¢
$68
70¢
$5.7K
65¢
$3.9K
60¢
$168
55¢
$8.2K
50¢
$35.1K
45¢
$49.4K
40¢
$53.5K
35¢
$2
30¢
$89
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMarco Cecchinato$18.9K@ 42.84¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—44 minutes ago
SELLMarco Cecchinato$27.7K@ 45.33¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYFrancisco Comesana$12.1K@ 53.71¢0x6982…a165🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMarco Cecchinato$10.0K@ 50.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMarco Cecchinato$10.0K@ 50.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstMarco Cecchinato$49.1K
BUY VWAP 46.68¢·5 fills
0x6982…a165Francisco Comesana$12.1K
BUY VWAP 53.71¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.