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Rolex Paris Masters: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur Gea

● quote 15 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $221.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $529.1KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur Gea

Indicative prices · 15 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Jan-Lennard Struff
0.1¢
Arthur Gea
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:116 trades$161.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 15 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Gea · $17.7K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$36.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Gea$38.5K@ 64¢·999585

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$234
6h
−$61.1K
tracked
$161.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: Arthur Gea · $17.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 15 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 35.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-10 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jan-Lennard Struff and Arthur Gea in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Arthur Gea1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Arthur Gea@ 35.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +30.5pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Gea@ 43.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Arthur Gea UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $4.3K → $7.4K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jan-Lennard Struff; negative values favor Arthur Gea. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Gea · $234
6hArthur Gea · $61.1K
24hArthur Gea · $61.1K

Jan-Lennard Struff price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jan-Lennard Struff price. Arthur Gea fills are converted to the complementary Jan-Lennard Struff probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h56.08¢▲ above by 43.8pp
VWAP 7d56.08¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jan-Lennard Struff price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$12.3K
90¢
$6.3K
85¢
$80
80¢
$71
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$53.0K
60¢
$1.6K
55¢
$1.3K
50¢
$0
45¢
$8.2K
40¢
$35.7K
35¢
$42.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Gea$23.7K@ 31.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLArthur Gea$13.2K@ 31.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Gea$38.5K@ 64.12¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur Gea
—$1.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Struff vs. Gea: Match O/U 22.5
—$366priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$75priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Jan-Lennard Struff (-0.5) vs Arthur Gea (+0.5)
—$37priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Struff vs. Gea: Match O/U 21.5
—$33priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Struff vs. Gea: Match O/U 23.5
—$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Struff vs. Gea: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Struff vs. Gea: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

999585Arthur Gea$38.5K
BUY VWAP 64.12¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Arthur Gea$23.7K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.