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Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Astra Invicta (+1.5)

Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $5.2KEvent: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs

Polymarket indicative prices · 5 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

40.5¢
Team Liquid
59.5¢
Astra Invicta
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%
24h sample:5 trades$408 trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 38 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$15
6h
−$203
tracked
$408

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 38 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid wins 2 or more games than Astra Invicta in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Astra Invicta".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Round 1 match between Team Liquid and Astra Invicta in the PARI Universe Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid wins 2 or more games than Astra Invicta in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Astra Invicta". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining games required to decide the match, including a game in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0237…01fc2 linked markets · $4.8K gross
0xe907…cff63 linked markets · $1.5K gross
0xa1cc…fa622 linked markets · $320 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Liquid; negative values favor Astra Invicta. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Liquid · $15
6hAstra Invicta · $203
24hAstra Invicta · $203

Team Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Liquid price. Astra Invicta fills are converted to the complementary Team Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h37.8¢▲ above by 2.7pp
VWAP 7d37.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$103
35¢
$218
30¢
$87
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.