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Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Holger Rune

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $144.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $538.9KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Holger Rune

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.5¢
Hubert Hurkacz
99.5¢
Holger Rune
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:178 trades$279.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Holger Rune · $24.4K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$65.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHubert Hurkacz$22.8K@ 65¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Holger Rune pressure: $2.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.3K
6h
+$76.5K
tracked
$279.8K

12 verified profitable wallets: Holger Rune · $24.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -76.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Holger Rune or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Holger Rune. This market will resolve to 'Holger Rune' if Holger Rune advances against Hubert Hurkacz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xce6b…60b72 linked markets · $1.2K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $61 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Hubert Hurkacz@ 77.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Hubert Hurkacz2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Holger Rune@ 41.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -23.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Hubert Hurkacz@ 60.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +21.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Hubert Hurkacz DOWN 22.5pp · near-book depth $139 → $7 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hubert Hurkacz; negative values favor Holger Rune. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHolger Rune · $2.3K
6hHubert Hurkacz · $76.5K
24hHubert Hurkacz · $77.6K

Hubert Hurkacz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hubert Hurkacz price. Holger Rune fills are converted to the complementary Hubert Hurkacz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h59.69¢▼ below by 59.2pp
VWAP 7d59.69¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hubert Hurkacz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$12.6K
75¢
$32.2K
70¢
$8.0K
65¢
$40.1K
60¢
$105.6K
55¢
$30.2K
50¢
$4.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$19.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$6.7K
25¢
$11.0K
20¢
$163
15¢
$5.1K
10¢
$4.5K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHubert Hurkacz$14.1K@ 75.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYHolger Rune$11.7K@ 38.59¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYHolger Rune$12.0K@ 36.65¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYHubert Hurkacz$22.8K@ 64.52¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesHubert Hurkacz$31.7K
BUY VWAP 52.39¢·13 fills
kkookkooHubert Hurkacz$30.8K
BUY VWAP 66.55¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesHolger Rune$28.6K
BUY VWAP 53.43¢·9 fills
0x076d…8d4cHolger Rune$28.5K
BUY VWAP 37.35¢·4 fills
tennischampHubert Hurkacz$14.1K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill
jtwyslljyHubert Hurkacz$13.7K
BUY VWAP 62.67¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.